Extinction and Quasi-Stationarity for Discrete-Time, Endemic SIS and SIR Models

Some discrete-time SI, SIR, and SIS epidemic models.

Discrete-time models, or difference equations, of some well-known SI, SIR, and SIS epidemic models are considered. The discrete-time SI and SIR models give rise to systems of nonlinear difference equations that are similar in behavior to their continuous analogues under the natural restriction that solutions to the discrete-time models be positive. It is important that the entire system be cons...

Extinction and Quasi-Stationarity in the Stochastic Logistic SIS Model - ReadingSample

Stationarity in moment closure and quasi-stationarity of the SIS model.

Previous epidemiological studies on SIS model have only considered the dynamic evolution of the mean value and the variance of the infected individuals. In this paper, through cumulant neglection, we use the dynamic equations of all the moments of infected individuals to develop a recursive method to compute the equilibria manifold of the moment closure ODE's. Specifically, we use the stable eq...

Extinction and quasi-stationarity in the Verhulst logistic model.

We formulate and analyse a stochastic version of the Verhulst deterministic model for density-dependent growth of a single population. Three parameter regions with qualitatively different behaviours are identified. Explicit approximations of the quasi-stationary distribution and of the expected time to extinction are presented in each of these regions. The quasi-stationary distribution is appro...

SIS and SIR Epidemic Models Under Virtual Dispersal.

We develop a multi-group epidemic framework via virtual dispersal where the risk of infection is a function of the residence time and local environmental risk. This novel approach eliminates the need to define and measure contact rates that are used in the traditional multi-group epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing. We apply this approach to a general n-patch SIS model whose basic reprodu...